Article
Recent trends of surface air temperatures over Kenya from 1971 to 2010
METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS
Ayugi Brian Odhiambo，Tan Guirong
Abstract
Global warming impacts leading to climate change is influencing all aspects of life and the ecosystems. Paris agreement capped the increase to a target below 2 degrees C and further downward trajectory to 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. This resolution requires nations to progressively monitor recent past and current temperature trends for accurate projections and adaptations. The present study characterizes recent temporal evolution of surface air temperature over Kenya during 1971-2010. The study utilized Climatic Research Unit reanalysis datasets for monthly minimum, maximum and mean average temperatures. Linear regression is utilized in determining statistical significance of trends, while Sequential Mann-Kendall rank test is employed in evaluating abrupt changes in temperature during the study period. Spatial analysis of mean temperature during the last four decades reveals evidence of rising temperature on annual and seasonal bases. Positive trends dominate western and central parts of Kenya, whereas insignificant positive trends are observed over northern and eastern parts of the study domain. Similarly, linear trends exhibit rising temperatures at the rate of 0.09 degrees C/decade, with an abrupt change in annual mean being detected in 1992. Overall, significant increase at 99% confidence level is observed during March-May season, while 95% confidence level is witnessed during October-December season.
DOI: 10.1007/s00703-018-0644-z
