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Statistical extended-range forecast of winter surface air temperature and extremely cold days over China
作者:重点实验室               发布时间:2017-9-10 10:56:23              浏览量:14

Article

Statistical extended-range forecast of winter surface air temperature and extremely cold days over China

Quarterly Journal of The Royal Meteorological Society

Zhu, Zhiwei; Li, Tim

Abstract

An extremely cold day (ECD) in boreal winter over China is often accompanied by freezing rainfall or snow, leading to power outages, paralysed traffic and damaged ecosystems. Extended-range (5-30 days lead) forecast of Chinese winter surface air temperature (SAT) and ECD has become a critical demand nationwide. In the present study, based on training data during 1960/1961-1999/2000, a statistical spatial-temporal projectionmodel (STPM) is conducted to carry out an independent extended-range forecast of winter SAT and ECD over China.

For the independent forecast period (2000/2001-2012/2013), STPM is able to capture the empirical orthogonal function (EOF)-filtered 10-80 days SAT anomaly at all 5-30 days lead times. Verification against the observed 10-80 days SAT anomaly shows that significant temporal correlation coefficient skill persists to 25-30 days lead times over most parts of China, except for northeastern China and the Tibetan Plateau where useful skill is up to a 15 days lead time. Significant pattern correlation coefficients between forecasted and the EOF-filtered/observed 10-80 days SAT anomaly account for over 63%/59% of total forecasts for all 5-30 days lead times.

The forecast local ECD is determined based on reconstructed SAT by adding the lower frequency (longer than 80 days) climatological SATto the forecast 10-80 days SAT anomaly. Except for southeastern China and the Tibetan Plateau, STPM can hit above 30% of local ECDs over most parts of China at least 15 days in advance.

DOI:10.1002/qj.3023


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